United States: Dust off the umbrellas — Florida is bracing for another wet spell. A swirling low-pressure disturbance, parked just off the state’s northeast coastline near Jacksonville Beach and St. Augustine, is set to drench the region with heavy downpours and trigger potential flash floods, per the National Hurricane Center’s July 23 briefing.
The system has a slim shot — just 10% — at morphing into a tropical depression before it crosses into the Sunshine State. But it’s expected to soak North Florida, move into the Gulf of America, and may muster minor strength before taking aim at Louisiana and Texas this weekend.
The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk across much of the Southeast due to the potential for isolated flash flooding through Thursday.
“Several inches of rainfall are anticipated along the I-10 corridor,” AccuWeather warned. “Some spots may receive more than 6 inches quickly, causing hazardous road conditions and travel snags in low-lying zones.”
Meanwhile, another tropical wave freshly peeled off Africa’s west coast has joined the Atlantic watchlist — making it three systems on the NHC radar, as per USA TODAY NETWORK.
Relentless Heat Dials Back in Florida — Barely
The oppressive heat dome that’s broiled much of the eastern US is slowly shifting away from Florida. Still, it hasn’t fully let go. North Florida continues to simmer with heat index values ranging from 103 to 109°F. Only the western Panhandle — including Escambia, Santa Rosa, and coastal Okaloosa — faces an active Heat Advisory today, with “feels-like” temperatures near 110°F.
The NWS Heat Risk map shows moderate threats in the north and north-central regions, minor risks in the south, and major to extreme heat lingering in the western Panhandle.
System Update: July 23, 2025 – National Hurricane Center
Where’s the brewing storm?
A broad, sloppy mix of showers and storms is clustered off the southeastern US coast, tied to a trough on the tail end of a frontal system. The mass is expected to drift west-southwest into the north-central Gulf, where slight development is possible before it rolls inland this weekend.
- Chance of formation in 48 hours: 10%
- Chance over 7 days: 10%
Regardless, the system is primed to dump significant rain across Florida today and soak the northern Gulf coast through the weekend.
Other Tropical Mischief Brewing in the Atlantic
Tropical Wave #1
Now realigned by satellite wind data, this wave sits near longitude 23W, dragging a 1015 mb low. Moderate storms occur between 8°N and 13°N, from 18°W to 31°W.
Tropical Wave #2
Floating in the central Atlantic near 40W, this one shows minimal activity with scattered showers between 9°N and 11°N.
Tropical Wave #3
Speeding west near 57W and east of the Lesser Antilles, it’s pushing forward at 10–15 knots. Storms scatter between 6.5°N and 16°N from 53W to 58.5W, according to reports by USA TODAY NETWORK.
Florida’s Forecast Snapshot – July 23, 2025
Pensacola (Panhandle)
Scattered storms are likely post-lunch. Sun sneaks out early, highs near 93°F. “Feels-like” temp up to 109°F. Winds shift from north to south. Rain chance: 70%.
Tallahassee (Central Panhandle)
Expect PM thunderstorms, possibly intense. High around 90°F with a heat index nearing 105°F. Winds light, turning from calm to northeast. Rain chance: 60%.
Jacksonville (North Florida)
Rain and storms are likely. High near 89°F, heat index up to 103°F. Winds increase from east through the day. Rain chance: 80%.
East/Central Florida (Daytona Beach to Stuart)
Storms are likely throughout the afternoon. Highs near 88°F. Light winds turn southeast. Rain chance: 80%.
South Florida (West Palm to Naples)
Frequent storms expected, tapering off by evening. Highs from 85°F in West Palm to 88°F in Naples. Breezy south winds. Rain chance: 70–90%.
Southwest Florida (Fort Myers to Sarasota)
Storms are likely to increase in the afternoon. High near 87°F. Winds steady from the south-southwest. Rain chance: 90%.
2025 Hurricane Season Check-In
The season typically features 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. Here’s where things stand:
- Tropical Storm Andrea – June 24 (normal: June 20)
- Tropical Storm Barry – June 29 (normal: July 17)
- Tropical Storm Chantal – July 5 (normal: Aug. 3)
- Next in line: Dexter (pronounced: DEHK-ster) – average arrival: Aug. 15
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Names
Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy, as per USA TODAY NETWORK.
Hurricane Season Calendar
Season span: June 1 – November 30
Peak period: Mid-August through October
Region covered: North Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of America — a rebranded title per a directive from President Trump. The NHC and NOAA now use “Gulf of America” in official reports.
What is a ‘Tropical Cyclone’?
On NHC maps, “tropical cyclone” is the umbrella term for spinning systems forming over warm waters — whether weak or fierce. Once sustained winds cross 74 mph, its label depends on location:
- Hurricane – Atlantic, Eastern & Central Pacific
- Typhoon – Northwest Pacific
- Cyclone – South Pacific & Indian Ocean
In essence, it’s all in the name — but the fury is the same.
