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Former President of the US Donald Trump and President of the US Joe Biden | Credits: PBS
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Total Memorial Day MAGA Victory: Trump Leads Biden

United States: Memorial Day 2024 came with a pivotal shift in the political arena, with former President Donald Trump now outpacing President Joe Biden, upending last year’s trends. With the presidential race intensifying, Trump’s substantial national advantage over Biden invigorates the MAGA cohort.

In May 2023, three pivotal polls placed Biden in the lead:

– Morning Consult: Biden +2 (May 20-22, 2023)

– Quinnipiac University: Biden +2 (May 18-22, 2023)

– RMG Research: Biden +1 (May 22-24, 2023)

Jump to May 2024, and the scenario has markedly transformed in Trump’s favor:

– HarrisX/Harris Poll: Trump +8 (May 15-16, 2024)

– Echelon Insights: Trump +5 (May 13-16, 2024)

– YouGov: Trump +1 (May 19-21, 2024)

This stark reversal underscores the burgeoning discontent with Biden. His approval rating has languished below 40 percent since 2022, presently at a bleak 35 percent. Historically, a 50 percent approval rating is imperative for presidential reelection, a benchmark Biden seems unlikely to meet, according to certain reports.

Several significant developments since last May have swayed voter opinion:

1. Trump’s Indictments: Contrary to diminishing his standing, these legal challenges have rallied his base.

2. Hamas Attacks on Israel (October 7): Biden’s crisis management faced criticism, even from within his party.

3. Economic Hardships: Under Biden, Americans grapple with escalating costs, making the economy the paramount issue for voters.

4. Border Crisis: The ongoing turmoil at the southern border is widely attributed to Biden’s policies.

These elements have either tarnished Biden or bolstered Trump. Discontent over Biden’s October 7 crisis response, the sluggish economy, and border chaos has shifted voter perception. Concurrently, Trump’s presidency has enjoyed a renaissance in popularity, with more Americans viewing his tenure favorably, as per the reports.

New York Times/Siena poll in April revealed:

– 42 percent deemed Trump’s presidency “mostly good for America,” against 25 percent for Biden.

– More voters now consider Trump a “safe choice” (+11 points) and endorse his economic management (+10 points).

– There’s a rising belief that Trump left the nation in a better state (+9 points).

As the election nears, the ensuing six months will be critical. Debates will unfold, conventions will convene, and Trump’s criminal trial will culminate with substantial repercussions. Hunter Biden is also poised for trial over alleged gun and tax violations. The political landscape may further morph due to unforeseen events reminiscent of 2016 (Russia Hoax) and 2020 (Laptop from Hell).

Though Trump commands momentum this Memorial Day, the contest is far from settled. The Democrats and the administrative state will persist in their endeavors, but MAGA supporters have ample cause for optimism.

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